I don’t need any more convincing. Iran seems to have decided that it wants a showdown with the West, and it wants it sooner rather than later.
By “showdown”, I don’t mean a war – though that may eventuate – but I believe they really do want to see how far the West can be pushed before we threaten and/or use force.
The holding of those 15 Royal Navy sailors and Royal Marines is a calculated act produced by a state that is becoming very good indeed at calculation. The entire nuclear dispute has been milked, stroked and delayed as far as it absolutely can be…and even when sactions are imposed Iran says they don’t matter and vows to continue.
They know, just like the rest of us, that the West is rather impotent at the moment. Short of nuking them, there’s really not much we can do other than hit with a few surgical strikes…and we all know how spectacularly ineffective those have been over the years.
The news tonight is that Iran is now trying to parlay these 15 for some of their people that were grabbed in northern Iraq by the Americans. I don’t really believe that they haven’t figured out by now just how very thick a skull Dubya has. Sometimes I find it hard to believe myself, so I suppose I’ll cut the Ayatollah some slack for the moment.
But how far is Britain willing to push this? I’m sure that they must have something conventional they could hit Iran with? What about a naval blockade to stop them from shipping oil out of the country? Blowing up their pipelines?
Or has the age of Brittania finally come to a gruesome end? Was the Falklands War the last hurrah for a nation that now can have only memories of greatness?
I sure as hell hope not, but we all have to admit that it does look that way.
If I were Tony Blair, on the expiration of his 48 hour deadline I’d drop a missile right into downtown Tehran. One with no warhead on it…maybe fill it up with jellybeans.
Then follow that with a televised message that there’s another one loaded up that hasn’t had the warhead removed, and give a firm and final deadline.
I think there’s a famous quote about this but I can’t remember who it was. But basically, it goes that if your enemies hate you, then they might as well fear you – because that is the only thing that will keep them at bay.
Iraq has been screwed up so badly that Iran thinks that there is absolutely no way that Britain or the United States – or anyone else – would dare engage them. They need to be shown that they are wrong, or we face a very different World before the week is out.